MALAYSIAN 370 ACCIDENT MYSTERY
The disappearance of flight Malaysian 370 is a challenge for experts. After more than 30 days, no objective evidence to confirm this crash was found. Assumptions, typically discarded in the early hours of investigations, are still remained as a "technically possible" case, weeks after the disappearance. See the complete contents of an interview (Zero Hora news, Porto Alegre Brazil) on the subject:
May the satellite information about the crash position (at Indian Ocean) is wrong and the plane had not crash there?
R. One month after the disappearance of the aircraft there is no objective evidence about what happened. In terms of risk management engineering, "objective evidence" is material evidence, scientifically proven facts, that rule out other possibilities restricting the progress of the investigation to a smaller universe of scenarios. Although all information obtained by analysis of data from satellites and radars, this information has not been confirmed in the searches. It represents the evidence of what has most likely happened, but there is still no objective evidence about it. Furthermore, the data already obtained, only means incomplete hypotheses. The most important questions remain totally unanswered.
What hypotheses should be still being considered ?
R. There are many hypotheses for DISAPPEARANCE. But they can all fit in one of two main ways:
1 - NOT INTENTIONAL (much more likely): In this case the plane crashed and no one wanted it on board. Even if it was a terrorist attack, in NOT intentional hypothesis, something wrong causing the plane crash. In this case some trace would be found or, in a rare case, the plane crashed in the sea with angle of incidence such that led him to the depths. Or even fell to the ground in a remote location not investigated. There are previous cases of this type, including Brazilian aircrafts as a plane that disappeared about 3 decades ago in the Pacific Ocean, so far without any information about what happened. There is also the famous case of a plane that crashed in the 70s in the Argentine region of the Andes, and was located just 72 days later with survivors who needed to eat human flesh during the isolation period.
2 - INTENTIONAL In this case, it is supposed that was the intention of making the aircraft disappear. Pilots would have been recruited as part of a plan to steal the aircraft and take it to a clandestine airstrip to fulfill some purpose. For example, being "imaginative", could even be an infrastructure ready to prepare the stolen aircraft to a terrorist attack. Passengers would not be an insurmountable problem. A previous attempt like this would require years of preparation and logistics, as in the case of September 11. So it becomes important to find some evidence about the crash to eliminate this cinematic event, but not entirely impossible. It seems crazy, but tecnically this would be possible. When we investigate an accident, especially at the beginning of the investigation without further information, we do a logical exercise. In this exercise we allow ourselves to "imagine" almost everything and discard what is impossible. The surprise is that a very serious terrorist action like this, could not be ruled out even weeks after the disappearance. If there were a plan like this, the Malaysian`s aircraft stolen might be hidden and prepared for months. After that the terrorists would try to "steals up" other plane in flight as the same way and place the Malaysian`s aircraft in his place, with the transponder prepared to deceive all traffic controllers. Over the airspace target for a terrorist attack, even if that "pirate" plane was shot down the attack could be successful, depending on the explosive, biological or nuclear charge. It's just a possibility, those about which nothing is said while there is not a clue.
Which security measures should be reconsidered after this episode ?
The accident with the Malaysian Airlines Boeing intensifies a concern existed regarding aviation safety: pilots, co-pilots and flight attendants can deliberately cause an intentional plane crash? Despite all the training and experience, a crew could be enticed to divert an aircraft, stealing it to give it to terrorists? What should be the extent of human factors to be considered in the formation and adoption of commercial pilots? Cultural aspects involving their beliefs and origin should be considered or would that be a prejudice? Even the Malaysian Airlines Boeing has crash and is found in the deep Indian Ocean, for more than 30 days these issues have troubled experts. It is supposed there more attention about it in the future will be necessary, perhaps bringing changes, especially regarding the monitoring of the personal lives of pilots, co-pilots and crew on issues that go beyond their professional lives. This can generate a lot of controversy. But making tens and hundreds of flights, these professionals are responsible for the safety of thousands of lives, being themselves subject to personal, emotional problems and ideological opnions like any human.
O sucesso de um empreendimento tecnológico está associado ao respeito aos fatores humanos, ambientais, econômicos e sociais que estão sob sua influência. Bons valores estabelecem a boa Cultura de Segurança !